Are Managers Really Rational??
June 23rd, 2009I am officially confused.
Much has been written about how managers respond rationally to pay incentives, and how their supposedly “rational” behavior manifests as excessive risk taking with other people’s money. Many have even detailed how excessive risk taking brought about by distorted pay incentives was central to the financial crisis.
I agree that excessive risk taking played a role in the financial crisis. This has been well documented. Moreover, I am willing to concede that in some cases the behavior observed may have seemed rational. At the very least, the managerial behavior was a response to some form of incentive. And after all, we know incentives work, …even distorted ones.
Indeed, I have even written a bit about executive compensation and managerial excess on this blog (see Op Ed on Executive Pay, The Credit Crunch and Executive Pay, New Approach to Executive Compensation, and Revisiting Executive Pay). But for me, the issue of executive pay is a systemic, economy-wide problem, not simply limited to the financial sector.
That said, there is one thing that has always bothered me about the explanation that somehow managers acted rationally, and that this “rational” behavior to an existing incentive structure caused the financial crisis. That is, it implies that someone else, somewhere, acted irrationally.
For example, Calculated Risk, discussing Martin Wolf’s column (see Financial Reform and Incentives or Reform of Regulation), writes:
[Martin] Wolf discusses how it is rational for management…to gamble when the risks are asymmetrical (huge potential winnings, limited losses).
But this begs the question: Why was a system that provides managers the incentive to make stupid bets like that constructed in the first place? That seems pretty irrational to me.
If the person/people who built such a system were rational, they would have anticipated the deleterious consequences of the system that they were about to enact, and they would have refrained from so doing.
So then who are all these irrational people running around building silly executive compensation systems? Aren’t they, after all, current and former managers – boards of directors, compensation consultants, and the like?
So then remind me again, how can managers be the rational ones??
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