Update: Déjà Vu All Over Again?

June 9th, 2008

After last week’s post on auction-rate securities (see Déjà Vu All Over Again?), one reader sent me a copy of a recent study conducted by his firm, Pluris Valuation Advisors. It’s important to understand that the material was sent to me by a gentleman who works for that firm, so the standard caveat that this is part scientific inquiry and part sales pitch apply, but I’m pretty sure that most readers of this blog understand that.

I am neither endorsing the study, attesting to the veracity of the data, nor advocating the services of the firm; however, I must say that to the extent that the information is factual, there are some thought-provoking nuggets in there.

It provides some interesting “Who woulda thunk it” information about the largest holders of ARS (e.g., Berkshire Hathaway), plus some caveats about when those holders actually acquired their positions (e.g., in the case of Berkshire Hathaway, after the market seized up in February).

Striking a more sober note, the study also provides some substantiation to my claim that more write-downs are yet to come, …and given the write-downs acknowledged to date, they have the potential to be even greater than the 20-30% that I previously predicted.

You can download a copy of their study here: Auction Rate Securities Holders

I’d love to hear your thoughts. Enjoy!

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