Dumbfounded by the Data
Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007I came across a statistic a few weeks ago in the New York Times describing in detail how we’ve already passed the $2 trillion mark in M&A activity for 2007. At this pace, M&A activity in 2007 will break the record set just last year.
I have to admit, it doesn’t make all that much sense to me. And it’s not the "why". I know why the deals are taking place. With this much liquidity in the market and with easy access to cheap capital, deals are bound to get done. In fact, the OECD published a report last week blaming increased M&A activity on excess foreign exchange reserves in countries such as China, Japan, and India; recycled petrodollars from countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia as result of elevated oil prices; and interest rates that have been at historical lows across the globe over the past six years.
This certainly explains the private equity side of the story. Again, as a private equity manager, I am flush with investor cash. Investment in my funds is at an all-time high, and I can borrow very cheaply. So I do what I’m paid to do - buy companies.
What amazes me is the amount, and level, of strategic acquisitions that have taken place in this market! In this environment, where the market for firms is not cheap (the premia paid for firms is running higher than the 30% historical norm) and where strategic buyers have to compete with private equity buyers, I’m just not sure I see the logic in many of the deals. It’s hard enough to integrate an acquired firm in the best of cases. And again, most strategic acquisitions fail. Paying more for an acquisition certainly will not make the integration any easier. So why? Why, why, why?
True, strategic acquirers also benefit from low interest rates. But as with home prices, when interest rates are low, prices of companies tend to rise. Although you can afford to pay a greater price for a given asset with lower interest rates (because servicing debt is more manageable), unlike the housing market however, strategic acquirers must generate hard synergies that exceed the acquisition price in order to make a deal worthwhile. Do the acquirers really believe that they’ll be able to generate the synergies necessary to make these deals pay off? Why should we expect the acquisition failure rate to be any lower than the 50-80% historical norm? If anything, given the inflated prices, we should plausibly expect failure rates to be greater. Also, in a struggling economy (and we are in a struggling economy flirting with recession), do acquirers believe that the their target firm’s business will improve in the near term? Do they think it will be easy to increase sales?
And it’s not just the volume of deals, but the value of the strategic deals that have been announced that I find outrageous. When I look at proposed deals like ABN-AMRO and whoever wins that bid, Alcoa and Alcan, Thomson and Reuters, News Corp and Dow Jones, IntercontinentalExchange and CBOT, Abbott Labs Diagnostics and GE, I scratch my head. None of these deals was for less than $5 billion, and the average was nearly $30 billion. Incredible!
Although surely not all of these deals will end in failure, but the sheer quantity (and volume) of deals makes me wonder if in a few years we’ll wonder what the heck we were thinking. My guess: YES!






